Win rate45%
2575
Reward : risk per trade1.5R
0.54
Risk per trade1.00%
0.253
Profit target8.0%
420
Max drawdown5.0%
215
Challenge verdict
64% pass probability on the modeled rules — and your real odds are lower wherever time limits, consistency rules, or daily limits apply.
Pass probability — modeled rules only
64.4%
Expected trades
28
to pass or fail
Expectancy / trade
+0.125%
of account
Breakeven win rate
40.0%
you're +5.0% above it
Expected attempts
1.6
to clear Phase 1 once
Model assumptions
- Fixed fractional risk of the starting balance per trade — no compounding, no mid-challenge size changes.
- Trades are independent with constant win rate and reward:risk.
- Drawdown is modeled as a static floor. Trailing models are strictly harsher, so treat the result as an upper bound there.
- Time limits, consistency rules, and daily-loss limits are not modeled — where a firm has them, the real probability is lower.