Win rate (per trade)52%
3070
Reward : risk1.50R
0.55
Risk per trade1.00% · $500
0.255
Trades per day3
110
Profit target (challenge)8.0%
412
Max drawdown5.0% · $2,500
215
Profit split90%
50100
Payout window (trading days)21d
5survival horizon + profit accrual40
Buy-in → first payout
About 76% of the time this profile makes it from buy-in to a first payout here — pass the eval, then survive the 21-day window funded.
Probability you reach a first payout
76%
Pass the challenge
88%
reach target before max DD
Survive 21d funded
87%
±1.5pp
Take-home if paid
$8,505
90% split, per window
Expected P&L / window
$9,450
$150/trade × 3×21d
Pass the eval88%
Survive funded87%
Reach a payout76%
Stage 1 (pass) is solved exactly; stage 2 (survive funded) is 2,000 seeded Monte-Carlo runs. Same inputs always reproduce this exact verdict.
Reproduces this exact scenario.
Model assumptions
- Three stages chained: pass the evaluation, then survive a payout window funded, then take the payout. The journey probability is P(pass) × P(survive) — independent stages.
- Fixed-fractional risk on the starting balance (no compounding), independent trades, constant win rate and R:R. Real P&L has tails this does not.
- Expected window P&L is win-rate expectancy × trades — a long-run average, not a guaranteed month. A losing edge shows no payout because there is none to project.
- The payout cap is applied only when it parses to a clean monthly figure; conditional, tiered, or per-payout caps surface as the firm’s own wording, not a number.