Your firm rules
Profit target (challenge)
Enter as % of account or a $ amount
Maximum drawdown
floor ≈ $2,500 on this account
Daily loss limit
Breaching it fails the account in this model. Blank = unspecified (we won't assume “none”).
Your trading model
Risk per trade1.00% · $500
0.255
Payout economics
Profit split90%
50100
Buy-in → first payout
Set a daily loss limit, pick a firm to use its verified rule, or tick “No daily limit.” Leaving it blank would assume the most forgiving outcome, which we don't do (D25).
Probability you reach a first payout
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Model assumptions
- Three stages chained: pass the evaluation, then survive a payout window funded, then take the payout. The journey probability is P(pass) × P(survive) — independent stages.
- Fixed-fractional risk on the starting balance (no compounding), independent trades, constant win rate and R:R. Real P&L has tails this does not.
- Expected window P&L is win-rate expectancy × trades — a long-run average, not a guaranteed month. A losing edge shows no payout because there is none to project.
- The payout cap is applied only when it parses to a clean monthly figure; conditional, tiered, or per-payout caps surface as the firm’s own wording, not a number.